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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by topics such as migration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts argue that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts suggest that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.